Planning with uncertainty

by bucketing decisions to now, soon, and later

There are times in life when you know what you’ll be doing come October (or at least you think you know). And then there are other times when you don’t know where you’ll be living, or how much you’ll be making, or what your day-to-day life is going to look like. Life is in transition.

That’s me right now. In June, my husband finishes his training to be a psychiatrist. He’s on the job hunt and had a few interviews, but we still don’t know where we will be living, when a new job will start, or how much he will be making. Our lease is up at the beginning of July. Our health insurance will be non-existent from his employer (given that I’m self-employed). What kind of childcare will be available for our not-yet-public school-aged kids? Will we end up near family or other support? What about the cost of living? There are a thousand and one questions to be answered.

How do you plan financially at a time like this, when there is so much uncertainty?

Personally, I control what I can control and *try* to let go of the rest. “Get comfortable not knowing,” as another of my favorite Substacks reminded me.

With clients, I like to break down what we need to think about or do into three categories: now, soon, and later. So here’s me doing it for myself:

Now

• Set aside cash for moving expenses.

• Make a plan for likely having no second steady paycheck for July and August.

Soon

• Figure out what we’re going to do about health insurance in the likely couple-month gap between employer coverage.

• Review total compensation packages. Build a budget based on the cost of living and salary/benefits.

  • This includes looking at childcare options and costs.

Later

• We will probably rent for a year or two wherever we end up. Looking for a rental can wait. And it doesn’t have to be the perfect one or even in the perfect school district at this point!

• Figure out long-term saving and investing with the new normal.

If all I can do now is set aside cash for moving expenses and make a plan for not having our main income source for two months, that’s easy. I’m working extra this tax season to save up some cash. We save $2,000/month if we pull our kids out of childcare. With two adults, one with no job and one with flexible self-employment, we will be able to do so.

All our choices will not be purely financial. Finances are going to be a factor, but the bigger ones are finding work and a community where our family can thrive.

If you’re in a life transition, it’s not about making perfect financial decisions; it’s about taking small steps forward and doing the next right thing. We’re all just out here making the best possible choices we can wth limited information and capacity.